More users will access the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within five years, according to a Dec. 16 report from Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker, one of the analysts who predicted the original Internet boom. "The mobile Internet is ramping faster than desktop Internet did," according to the report.
Smartphones, e-book readers, connected in-car electronics and wireless home appliances like gaming consoles would sell more than 10 billion units by 2020. That's ten times more devices than there are desktop PCs, according to the report.
Here's one interesting observation from the report: Meeker believes that the mobile Internet revolution will produce a new crop of winners, whose ranks won't include today's giants. Microsoft, Cisco and Intel benefited from proliferation of PCs. Desktop Internet computing lead to the birth of Google, eBay and Yahoo. Mobile Internet computing winners are yet to be defined, she writes. "It's notable that, after years in the backwaters of global mobile development, American companies (led by the likes of Apple, Facebook, Amazon.com and Google) are becoming mobile Internet innovation pacesetters," according to the report.

There's a big party being held in Brooklyn tonight for Boxee, the Internet video service I wrote about in this story in May. One bit of news is the unveiling of Boxee Beta -- it has to date been available only in a Alpha version -- that has been rebuilt from the ground up.
Engadget has a look at Boxee Beta.
For those unfamiliar, Boxee is an elegant and free media center application for the Mac and Windows that in many ways represents what people imagine when they think of TV moving to the Internet. From within Boxee you can watch Web video in all its various forms: Video podcasts, YouTube clips, downloaded movies, and with some limitations TV shows on from Hulu on your computer.
But it doesn't stop there. It's so good, that I've heard numerous cases of people actually dropping their cable or satellite TV service, in favor of connecting a Mac running Boxee to their favorite TV set. Others have been known to hack their AppleTV devices and install Boxee on them.
That fact in particular suggested opportunity. One of the things founder Avner Ronen told me at the time was that he hoped to get the Boxee service built into consumer hardware, and that he hoped to have some news on this front in time for the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, which is now less than a month away.
Ronen and his team have delivered, and that is I think the bigger news. I just heard that the first so-called Boxee Box (pictured) will be made by D-Link, the company behind scores of home networking products.
In addition to video, Boxee plays music from your personal music collection, streams music from your favorite Pandora Radio stations, organizes your photos. It's also social: You can share what you're watching with your friends on Twitter and Facebook, and also discover things you might like from your Boxee-using friends.
D-Link says the Boxee Box has already won a "Best of Innovations" award from the Consumer Electronics Association. No price has yet been announced, but they're promising to deliver the product to stores during the second half of 2010. More about the Boxee Box is here.
Even small changes to the world's most-used search engine inevitably affect how hundreds of millions of people use the Web. In the past few days, Google introduced two big features which could have major implications for the future of online search and for the company's evolving relationship to a handful of emerging rivals.
Google Real Time Search, first announced during a Monday event at California's Computer History Museum, merges the frequent updates made by users of social sites Twitter, Facebook, and MySpace with Google's general Web search results. This means that if you're looking for information on events that are unfolding quickly -- such as a sporting event or an earthquake -- you can scan through messages posted in the last few minutes rather than news articles or Web sites that are already outdated. (And don't worry, Google only plans to include public messages from Facebook Pages rather than the private status updates that make up the bulk of the social networking site.)
Google had to strike deals with each of these companies to make the real-time feature possible, but it's a maneuver many believe will help the search giant compete with these very players. Before, the best way to find out how the general public feels about a speech from President Obama, for example, was to scan through Twitter -- now the upstart microblogging service has one less advantage to boast.
The announcement also may affect the do-si-do between Google and News Corp., which has threatened in recent weeks to prevent its stories from showing up on Google. As Google watcher Danny Sullivan points out in a post, it's unclear why the parent of MySpace is willing to give up data from the social network while at the same time being so protective of its journalism.
Last Friday, Google quietly rolled out a feature which may have even greater impact on Web users -- though many are unlikely to notice. With something the company calls Personalized Search, Google will start showing different search results for different users, depending on which links they have clicked the most in the past. In theory this means that eventually, a car lover and a zoologist typing "jaguar" into the search field will wind up with two different sets of search results.
Search tailored to individuals will no doubt make Google more useful. But what will it do to advertisers? Businesses that have spent years and millions of dollars optimizing their Web sites for search may find themselves gradually shoved out of the top 10 listings for choosy Web surfers who prefer non-commercial pages like Wikipedia and LinkedIn. Ultimately, businesses could decide to spend less money juicing their placement in "organic results" and more on the paid search ads from which Google derives the bulk of its revenues.
Salesforce.com Chief Executive Marc Benioff has never been shy about borrowing a bit of other companies’ mojo. On Nov, 18, he introduced the software company’s latest product, a business collaboration tool that takes pages from the playbooks of Facebook and Twitter.
Salesforce will begin selling the new software, called Chatter, next year at a price of $50 per user each month. The software works with Salesforce’s core customer management software to display “profiles” of employees and posts about projects they’re working on or customers they’ve visited. “I know more about these strangers on Facebook than I do about my own employees and what they’re working on,” Benioff said during a speech at the company’s Dreamforce conference in San Francisco. “I know when my friends went to the movies, but not when my VP of sales visited our top customer.”
Chatter pushes Salesforce, expected to reach $1.3 billion in revenues this year, into the crowded field for collaboration software. Salesforce is trying to expand beyond the customer management software that’s been its bread and butter. Microsoft’s SharePoint Server, an IBM product called Atlas that works with its Lotus e-mail software, and Google’s recently introduced Wave all offer business users the ability to share information and hold conversations on the Web.
Software developers will be able to use Chatter to build their own applications, Salesforce said. The move comes as some of the tech industry’s largest vendors are releasing tools that let programmers create cloud computing applications delivered over the Internet. Microsoft on Nov. 17 launched Windows Azure, software for letting Windows developers build cloud computing applications using familiar Microsoft technologies. Google and Amazon.com also offer tools for developers to build cloud applications.
Look for updated coverage on BusinessWeek.com, including excepts from an interview I’ll conduct with Benioff later today.
How do you find what to watch online? Sites for finding and watching video abound, from search engines such as Blinkx and Truveo to hosted video sites such as YouTube and Hulu.com. And of course there are conventional search engines such as Google, Yahoo, and Bing, the last of which just introduced a new video site.
But there's nothing quite like a TV Guide for mainstream Web video--television shows and movies. (Note: see update below on TV Guide's own offering.) That's what Clicker hopes to create, and more.

The nearly one-year-old Los Angeles-based company launches its Web video programming guide today to the general public after two months in test mode. Clicker has organized more than 400,000 legally available full TV episodes from 1,200 sources around the Web. And it now will index 30,000 movies from Netflix's Instant Streaming and Amazon.com's video on demand, which both charge fees.
What Clicker has done more than other sites is organize the Web's farflung offerings, using a structured database of listings rather like Wikipedia, Yelp, and the Amazon movie site IMDB.com do, into a format that makes it easier to find what kinds of video you're looking for. As with Tivo, you can also set up season passes to shows. "It's no longer about when something is on, it's what's on, wherever it is," says Lanzone.
The company also hopes to spark a social element where people can share their favorites with friends on Facebook and Twitter. "That could be the thing that really makes it different," says Greg Sterling of Sterling Market Intelligence.
Not least, Clicker, which has 30 employees, has some formidable backing. CEO Jim Lanzone ran the ASK search engine for six years until January 2008. Sling Media founder Blake Krikorian recently joined the board. Bill Gurley of Benchmark Capital and Geoff Yang of Redpoint Ventures are investors in the $8 million round last year.
Lanzone says the goal is to build a big audience before bringing in advertising.
Update: TV Guide, the original, reminds me that it has its own Online Video Guide, which gets 21 million unique visitors a month. It also recently announced Digital Video Recorder-style features to select and organize their favorite TV shows.
More details from Clicker after the jump, starting with the basic features:
Zynga CEO: Playfish Helps EA ‘Catch Up’
Mark Pincus has become the poster boy for the booming business of social online games. His company, Zynga, brings in more than $100 million in annual revenues, and owns the most popular Facebook app of the year, FarmVille. Zynga is even considered by analysts and observers to be a candidate to go public next year.
So what does Pincus make of video game stalwart Electronic Arts recently scooping up Playfish, one of Zynga's top rivals, in a deal that's worth up to $400 million? He says EA paid a justifiably high price to enter the social gaming space. "The founders got a really good cashout, and EA got to catch up to a business that they had kind of missed the start of," Pincus says.
Zynga may benefit indirectly from the marriage, since EA marketing savvy could bring more attention to the social gaming space, he says.
Pincus isn't worried about Playfish's newfound access to more capital making it a stronger competitor. But he admits that EA's popular game brands including The Sims and Madden have a lot of potential in the social gaming space. "There’s a good chance for them to try to leverage EA’s major brands and take Sims and other [games] into the market," he says. This could be a "risk" for Zynga and others that don't have a stable of recognizable game franchises to draw on, Pincus says.
- Skype and Google Voice users who want more bells and whistles for their phone communications services have a another option from TelCentris. The startup makes VoxOx that lets users make calls from PC to PC, as well as from PCs to landlines and mobile phones, and much more. Windows...
For year I've been waiting for the day when I can pay for something with my wireless phone. Technically I guess that day has been here for awhile -- you can certainly buy things like music and ringtones and let the charges roll over to your wireless bill -- but not in a way that I would actually use.
Zong, the mobile payments startup the specializes in selling virtual goods on social networking sites like Facebook and MySpace as well as online gaming sites like Gaia Online has today kicked it up a notch, with a service called Zong+.
The idea is to link your cell phone number to a credit or debit card, and then make payments buy giving your phone number. So if you want to buy a cool outfit for your avatar in the virtual world IMVU, you can do it more easily by just using your phone number and instead of seeing the charge on your wireless phone bill, see it on your debit card instead. The point, the company says is to make it easier for consumers to make the purchase.
I talked to Zong founder and CEO David Marcus and he told me that merchants like the new approach because it reduces their transactions fees, which in turn expands the markets that Zong can go after. Also, by making the transactions simple to executive, conversion rates go up: People who are looking at virtual goods, but not buying, tend to buy more readily.
It may sound like small potatoes, but Zong has processed payments for 10 million users. Compare that to the 50 million accounts on eBay's payment service PayPal. Additionally Zong and has relationships with more than 100 wireless carriers around the world.
And virtual goods is no market to disregard. As my colleague Rob Hof reported last year Gaia Online was doing up to $1 million a month in revenues selling virtual clothes and jewelry and accessories for its users' avatars at prices of a few pennies to a $10 apiece.
How's it work? After you link your card to your phone number Zong sends a unique PIN code to your phone via a text message for each transaction. That provides the security. If you try to buy something using someone else's phone number they see a text message with a PIN code that tells them someone is trying to use their account. And surprisingly, adding a phone number alongside a payment card number increases the security because the person trying to pay is offering two forms of authentication instead of one.
Personally I don't buy many virtual goods, and so I don't see myself using Zong yet. But give me chance to use my phone number to buy real-world goods from a merchant like Amazon without having to go through all the contortions of digging out my credit card, entering all the updated information and the little three-digit code on the back, and I just might spend more online generally. And why not make pay-by-phone-number available in traditional retail stores? I could walk into Best Buy, pick out a plasma screen TV, give my phone number and address to a sale associate, and walk out with a delivery appointment. I suspect something like this has got to be part of Zong's long-term plan.
On Oct. 20 Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker delivered her annual "Economy + Internet Trends" report. For techies, this is required reading, so I am posting an embed of the report on this blog.
Among the most important takeaways:
* The Tech Sector is a Growing Part of the Global Economy
* Ad Spending Should Grow in 2010
* Mobile Internet Usage Will be Bigger Than Most Think
* Apple Mobile Share Should Surprise on the Upside Near-Term
* Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption!
* Facebook is the Largest Share Gainer of Online Usage Over Past 3 Years
- Spencer Ante also publishes the Creative Capital blog. Click here to see more.
Mary Meeker's Internet Presentation 2009
LaLa’s Big Day
Earlier today, I spoke with Lala Media founder Bill Nguyen as he stood in the lobby of Warner Music's headquarters in New York. The always animated Nguyen was more animated than usual--and for good reason. He'd just finished a day when the world learned that his little-known company was going to be the engine behind new digital music offerings from Net behemoths Google and Facebook. He wasn't just excited about the magnitude of the possibilties, but by the fact that none of the news was supposed to happen so soon. "It was all totally unplanned and unexpected," he said.

Here's what happened. He'd gone to New York for an entirely different reason: to show music label executives and reporters a version of Lala's music service designed as an app for Apple's App Store. But then news broke, first by TechCrunch, that Google planned to use Lala's service as a back-end infrastructure for a new music search feature to enhance its overall search offering. Suddenly, Nguyen, who declined to comment on the Google rumors, was no-commenting his way through interviews as reporters asked for details.
Then things got wilder, when Facebook suddenly pushed up its announcement that it, too, planned to unveil a Lala-based music plan. Rather than stick to its plan to begin a limited roll-out to a small percentage of Facebook users later this week, suddenly the social networking giant confirmed its overall plan. "All of a sudden, it was like 'we were launching right now,'" says Nguyen.
Mind you, he's not complaining. He thinks traffic from Facebook alone could increase the number of songs doled out from Lala's servers by an order of magnitude above the 5 million or so songs it currently delivers each month. While he won't comfirm the Google deal, it's pretty clear it's coming. Google has sent out invitations to announce an Oct. 28 event at a historic Hollywood concert hall to announce a music-related offering. Judging from the invitation, Lala is a part of the news.

All of this represents a quick culmination of many months of deal-making by Nguyen and Lala CEO Geoff Ralston, a former Yahoo executive. Their pitch has been that there needed to be a return to basic economics when it comes to music. Rather than using music to sell hardware (a la Apple) or to sell advertisements (a la iMeem, MySpace, Spotify and others), they argued that consumers would buy music if it was easy and affordable to do.
Lala's model is to let consumers on the Web listen to any of the eight million songs in its database for free, but just once. After that, they could opt to buy a streamed version of the song, dubbed a Websong, for $.10. Or, if they wanted to listen when they werent online, they could pay $.99 for a regular MP3 download.
But since the masses weren't beating a door to Lala's servers, the company needed to land a Google or Facebook to achieve critical mass. Now, it has both. And both companies seem to have inventive plans that could well have mass appeal. Facebook plans to let people buy songs (either those Websongs or the pricer MP3s) for friends, from its virtual gift store. Nguyen envisions a time when Facebook users will habitually buy friends or family members a song on their birthday, on holidays or on other occasions. "Why not give people something they'd actually want, rather than a virtual carnation," he laughs. And he sees the phenomenon getting viral, as song purchases show up on millions of Facebook status updates. "Once someone gives you a song, all your other friends will know. And some of them will say, 'oh, of course Id like to send you a song for your birthday, too.'"
Neither Lala or Google are confirming their plan. But if the many press accounts are correct, it is similarly intriguing. Once a Googler enters a query in the Google search bar, they'll get a link that lets them actually listen to the song, as opposed to just getting the usual collection of lyrics sites, Wikipedia entries and the like. (Not all of these songs will be doled up via Lala. According to reports, some will come via iLike and possibly other digital music services.) Here are screenshots, courtesy of TechCrunch.
Whats it mean for Lala? Nguyen says the company will get a majority of revenue from sales made through Facebook. He says its similar to the cut app developers get from Apple, which is 70% of revenues. Facebook declined to confirm this, saying that it doesnt disclose financial terms of its gift offers.
Regardless of what the terms of the deal with Google turn out to be, Lala is likely to grow far more rapidly than in the past. And Nguyen doesn't sound concerned about Lala's ability to make a profit on the larger revenue base. "We've always been a company that invested heavily in the engineering, but we've never lost money on the music itself."
Of course, it's never had to deal with tens or hundreds of millions songs a month. As such, there remains the small question of execution. But if Nguyen & Co. can keep up with rising demand, the 35-person start-up may emerge as a company to reckon with amid thd digital music industry's walking wounded. Never one to shy away from a bold prediction, he says that "I think we'll be one of the top two or three retailers of music within a year." That suggests that while Apple's lead is safe, little Lala might catch Wal-Mart and will likely pass Best Buy, Amazon, Target and Borders.
UPDATE: Big news below: Microsoft has signed deals to get full feeds from Twitter and Facebook. Shortly, a dedicated beta site, bing.com/twitter, will have the ability to search full Twitter feeds. Search of Facebook public data will come later. (UPDATE 2: As I figured, Google just announced its own deal with Twitter--though not Facebook.)
Here's the information Microsoft just sent out, with more details below:
Qi Lu, President of Microsoft’s Online Services Division is announcing a new beta feature that enables people to easily search Twitter’s real-time information feed directly in Bing. This new feature helps people make better decisions and more fully understand Twitter conversations by collecting, analyzing and uniquely presenting real-time Twitter content.
More specifically, the new Twitter developments in Bing include:
* A real-time index of the Tweets that match your search queries in results. This feature makes it easier to follow what’s going on by reducing the amount of duplicates, spam, and adult content.
* Giving you the option to rank tweets either by most recent or by “best match,” where we consider a Tweeter’s popularity, interestingness of the tweet, and other indicators of quality and trustworthiness.* Providing the top links shared on Twitter around your specific search query by showcasing a few of the most relevant tweets.
Additionally, Bing automatically expands those small URLs (like bit.ly) to enable you to understand what people are tweeting about. Instead of showing standard search result captions, we select 2 top tweets to give users a glimpse of the sentiment around the shared link.
You can try out the new Bing Twitter search beta here momentarily or learn more about it at the Bing blog. Please note that this is a U.S. only feature at this time.Facebook Partnership
As part of his on-stage discussion at the summit, Dr. Lu is also announcing a global partnership with Facebook that will bring public Facebook status updates to Bing search results. The experience will be available at a later date.
Qi Lu, president of Microsoft's Online Services Division, is onstage at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco, in an interview with conference co-host Tim O'Reilly. Since joining Microsoft from Yahoo, he has been responsible for trying to turn Microsoft from an also-ran in search to at least a No. 2 to Google--something that likely will happen if Microsoft's search deal with Yahoo passes regulatory muster early next year.
I'll liveblog the highlights as they develop. Here's what he has to say:
Google's search engine is often described as a black box thanks to the veil of secrecy the company places over the mathematical formulas that determine what results we see in response to a query. In a feature story just out in the latest magazine, we take a tour inside Google's search quality group to determine the company's chances of maintaining its commanding share of the search market.
Truth be told, Google has a vested interest in opening up its black box a bit more. Competitors from Microsoft's Bing to real-time search engines like OneRiot (and Twitter itself) may not yet be having much impact on Google's market share. But they've certainly grabbed some of the limelight lately, often criticizing what they view as Google's lack of innovation.
Of course, it's always possible some upstart will disrupt Google's well-oiled search machine with a surprising new approach or technology breakthrough--in tech, nobody stays on top forever. But after spending several weeks talking with the search quality team's leaders and with outside experts, I got the distinct feeling that Google's core business isn't in imminent danger.
The bigger question is whether something might disrupt search's position atop the Internet economy. Twitter, Facebook, and other services are capturing more and more of people's time and interest, so Google will have to make sure that even as it tries to cement its search leadership, it doesn't miss the next breakthrough. In that light, it's no wonder it's trying all kinds of new services, regardless of whether investors worry it's getting distracted.
Starting tonight with Udi Manber, Google's vice president of engineering in charge of search, and in coming days, I'll be posting extended interviews with Google's top search leaders on this blog. So check back here each day for new insights from these folks, who to date haven't talked much to the press.
Update: And how could we forget? My interview with Google CEO Eric Schmidt is now live.
Facebook Climbs Toward Profitability
Facebook dominates the social networking landscape when it comes to membership and mindshare, but many have speculated that the company's focus on user growth has strained its ability to ever turn a profit. On Tuesday, those concerns were momentarily quieted as Facebook announced that it's now free cash flow positive.
This doesn't mean the social network is a profitable operation yet. Rather, the cash it generates from advertising and other forms of revenue now exceed the cost of servers and other capital expenditures required to keep Facebook running. One-time costs, like the reported $50 million acquisition of Friendfeed last month, and operational expenses like personnel, are not included in this equation. Outside investments in the company, like the $200 million it raised from Digital Sky Technologies in May, are not accounted for either.
Facebook has never disclosed its revenues, but board member Marc Andreessen recently told Rueters that the site is on track to generate over $500 million in revenues this year.
The same day it announced its cash flow milestone, Facebook said it has added 50 million users in the past two months -- bringing its total user base to 300 million and its signup rate to roughly 806,000 users per day.
That's a huge amount of traffic to support, and the site's accumulating stockpile of photos, videos, and other content requires an ever greater number of expensive servers. This was a serious problem for Facebook as recently as March, when my colleague Spencer Ante reported that it was seeking $100 million in debt financing directly related to server costs. Now, it appears that economies of scale are working in the company's favor: the more members it attracts, the less it has to pay to support each one.
This is a positive note for new CFO David Ebersman, who came from Genentech in June, to start his career at Facebook. But his work has just begun. The next two priorities at Facebook are likely to be creating new sources of revenue -- such as virtual goods and customized ad campaigns -- and taking the company public.
Facebook's announcement is also a positive sign for the broader social networking space, long derided by critics as a business high on hype and short on real profits. With the poster child of social sites well on a path to profitability, venture capitalists and strategic buyers will be more likely to bet big on Facebook's smaller rivals.